Hi.. I am new to this website.. but i would like to show you my calculations for this turnament... I might get on someone's nerves, because the team they like is not the one i calculated to have at least some chance to get to the last match, where it is pretty much 50-50.. so without further ado here are my calculations..
CSGO StarLader LAN Turnament: (website for the bracket and other stuff: http://csgo.starladder.tv/news/6263)
Winner Bracket:
NAVI x TSM (40-60) 70 %
Virtus.Pro x NiP (40-60) 60 % !
Envyus x TSM (60-40) 60 % !
NiP x Envyus (45-55) 50 % !! (35-65) -> (40-60) 60 % !
Loser Bracket:
NAVI x Virtus.Pro (40-60) 70 %
TSM x Virtus.Pro (45-55) 50 % !!
TSM/Virtus.Pro x NiP/Envyus (50-50) (winner of 8 x loser of 5)
Virtus.Pro x NiP (45-55) 40 % 18 % 22 %
Virtus.Pro x Envyus (50-50) 25 % 13 % 13 %
TSM x NiP (40-60) 25 % 10 % 15 %
TSM x Envyus (35-65) 10 % 4 % 7 %
Envyus x NiP 22+15 -> 37 % (65 %) Envyus x Virtus.Pro 18 % Envyus x TSM 10 %
NiP x Virtus.Pro 13+7 -> 20 % (35 %) NiP x Envyus 13 % NiP x TSM 4 %
IMPORTANT STUFF !!!
Probability of final match with these teams
Envyus x NiP 37+13 -> 50 % (50-50) NiP x Virtus.Pro 20 % (55-45) Envyus x Virtus.Pro 18 % (55-45) Envyus x TSM 10 % (60-40) Nip x TSM 4 % (60-40)
Probability of these teams to play in any matches of above
Envyus 50+18+10 -> 78 38 % (x2) NiP 50+20+4 -> 74 36 % (x1.58) Virtus.Pro 20+18 -> 38 19 % (x7.1) TSM 10+4 -> 14 7 % (x4.22)
RESULT: Here you can see that Envyus seems to be little bit better than NiP... (you need to consider that Envyus is probably gonna be playing 1 match less then NIP) So my advice (for this turnament if u want to bet :) is that u could go mid on Envyus ( x2 ) or go low on Virtus.Pro ( x7.1)... I will go mid on Envyus...
This analysis will be more accurate if these major teams wont have a stand-ins...
Any and all CONSTRUCTIVE feedback regarding my analysis is very much appreciated and will be considered in future analyzing. Feel free to ask me about anything considering this analysis. Good Bets and Have Fun.. :)