About a day or two ago I looked up the Fed's balance sheet and found that the QT isn't very much. The current amount is something like $8.5 Trillion. It was about $4T a few years ago just before the pandemic and quantitative easing during the pandemic brought it up to just under $9T about a year ago.
The past few months they have done more QT, but only about $100 billion per month. Yet inflation seems to be slowing and the factory orders and new orders of durables are increasing and the stocks have been in a rally since I planned for the bear market to keep getting worse since last September by selling stocks and waiting to get back in. The US economy isn't slowing down.
Missing out on the rally the past 2 months, now I think you are correct that the outright adversarial reporting by the main stream media is scamming small investors out of their savings and investments. The bear market seems to be over. Small investors planning for a bear market are getting burned.
Yesterday I decided that there probably isn't going to be a bear market. The markets and big companies like GOOGL will probably have a U-shape curve. When you look at the 5-year curve we are currently near the bottom where the decline is leveling off and probably will start will start increasing in price sometime near the end of next year.
I thought that with the balance sheet going from $4T to $8T, maybe the inflation will persist until the CPI doubles to be consistent with the money supply and available savings and liquidity bubbles. But also I worry that maybe the bubbles will remain inflated, and inflation would be limited by the increase in poverty for those who don't have money and those who pay 20% interest on the revolving credit card debt. It seems the homeless population living in boxes, tents and shanty towns is going to increase by the 10s of millions of people in the next decade. Yet they may work for minimum wage and keep inflation down and the jobs re-shored in the US. So declining labor costs, declining pension liability may make up for any increase in cost of borrowing for companies for at least the next few years. The market cap of AAPL and GOOGL may double, but real value may be the same as it is today. So I'm planning that the price per share isn't going to decline much. Today's market decline after the Fed meeting seems to be only ignorance, adversarial reporting by the news media and short term planning by most small investors regarding increased discount rates effecting the price of stocks and bonds.
I'm sorry this is so long, I'm just trying to clarify why I decided to plan that the bear market is over.