Surely this will end by 2021, right? Stuff I am hearing is ridiculous right now.

Just look at the death curves. After it peaks (unless it's an artificial peak where lockdown was initiated way before the natural peak), deaths drop down rapidly and never comes back up (regardless of lockdown and/or reopening). Most states have crossed their peak already. New York has been close to zero for a month already (basically within noise from false positives or "deaths with COVID") despite some amounts of reopening. Looking at cases is useless because that is a function of how often you test, false positive rates, and whether you do repeat testing. This short video summarizes it pretty well: https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1293576086413103109

In terms of herd immunity, people are focusing too much on the numbers. Theoretically, the threshold is around 60-70% or so. Realistically, for respiratory viruses, it seems to happen when 20-25% detected have antibodies. I think it's more of an accounting problem. Serological studies only test for antibodies, but immunity can come from other ways such as T-Cells. Kids for whatever reason doesn't seem to be able to be infected, so there is an accounting problem where when people compile numbers. They are resistant already, so they contribute to herd immunity, but if you don't test or count them at all, then the media can say "only 20% of people have antibodies, we are a long way away from herd immunity" when you should easily add maybe 30% to that number. But regardless of all the accounting difficulties, if the deaths go down to near zero or noise and stays there for a month, the epidemic is clearly over. The U.S. north east is obviously at that point already. Most other places have crosses their peak and deaths are already dropping very quickly. Almost the entirety of Europe is there already because they got the virus a bit earlier than the U.S. Europe is a good case study because they are ahead of us because they got it first.

/r/LockdownSkepticism Thread Parent