Hey so,
I'm coming at this with absolutely zero research. Merely repurposing a predictive time series model I built for Crypto and combining than with a monte carlo simulation to predict the daily stock prices over the course of a year. It works by looking at the autocorrelation for daily closing prices. So, tagging along to your thoughts.
I ran 10,000 simulations predicting the daily closing prices SVB for the course of a year. and Basically, and likely, becuase of the most recent downturn it's basically a coin toss.
Caveats.
1) I'm using 3 years of data to predict the next year to capture the uncertainty of the period, there are pros and cons to this.
2) I have done zero EDA on this, just running on new data. Soooo GRAIN OF SALT
3) Becuase this JUST happenned, it may or may not be a strong enough signal.
4) This is also assuming that this is just a dip and we continue with regular market conditions. (i.e it doesn't consider black swan events)
What does this mean?
It's a coin toss. IDK. Mr. Powell coulda blown up the banking system. its not out of the realm of possibilities. But assuming everything is fine and nothing is burning, About $35 is at risk per stock if holding over the course of the year. Again. grain of salt. because this just happened. This statistics will change as the new data comes in.
