You can't compare Taiwan to Ukraine, it's apples and oranges. Ukraine is 600 000 km², it's an insanely large area to invade, conquer and keep. Taiwan is 36 000 km². Against a country of 1.4 billion.

The Taiwan Strait is also less than 200km. China doesn't need to blitz the shore of Taiwan. China has the second biggest navy in the world, and will most likely be the biggest in the coming decade. They don't need to rush. They can besiege the island. They can bomb it from their mainland. For years if needed. Vice Admiral Carl Thomas of the US Navy said so himself: "They have a very large navy, and if they want to put ships around Taiwan and encircle it, they can do it.” And that's exactly what they do during military exercises (and did recently after the Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan). We would see it coming, just like every time we see it during their exercises. Only this time it would be for real.

You can say, well, the US would be their to protect Taiwan. Maybe. We may know how the Biden administration would react if it happened today because Biden said US forces would defend Taiwan. Is that true? Maybe. But what about the United States position in the next administration? In 10 years? In 2045? We simply don't know how both the United States and China's positions will have changed by then. I personally highly doubt the United States would start the biggest war in its history to defend Taiwan.

And again, please understand I do not wish for any of this to happen. I hope Taiwan stays independent. I hope China never invades. And if they do, I hope they somehow don't succeed. I hope nuclear war doesn't start. But what I want and hope doesn't matter. I'm talking about what China wants, and I believe them when they say they want Taiwan and are capable of taking it. I don't know why I'm getting downvoted for thinking this but whatever. Let's all pretend China is just bluffing and doesn't actually want Taiwan or wouldn't be able to do it. It's cozier this way.