Thoughts for 2015? Will the bull market continue?

  • junk bond spreads widening while treasury spreads tighten
  • small cap stocks underperforming mid caps, which underperform * * * large caps, which underperform mega caps
  • market breadth (NYSE) getting thinner, with fewer new highs when the market as a whole makes new highs
  • emerging market stocks selling off
  • Utilities and consumer staples outperforming consumer discretionary and energy
  • commodities doing poorly, mainly commodities used in manufacturing *Volatility increasing and becoming more frequent; big stock moves up and down, one after another
  • Yield curve flattening

These are easy to counter:

  1. Junk bonds are weak because of falling oil prices. A lot of energy companies issued junk bonds while oil as in the 90's and 100's. This is really a symptom of poor management than overall economic weakness.

  2. small caps may not offer a good risk/reward ratio. People see large caps as having better growth relative to risk than small caps. Small caps are too volatile.

  3. this tends to be cyclical .

  4. emerging market have been weak since 2011. Emerging markets actually have worse inflation adjusted growth than the US

  5. this is not bearish and there are indexes that didn't mention that are making new highs. QQQ, a technology ETF, is at record highs. Same for the retail etf XRT.

  6. commodities did poorly in the 80's and 90's too. That didn't stop those bull markets. The price of commodities has less to do with demand and more to do with supply. When prices go up more supply is added and prices fall again, regardless of consumption. There is some element of speculation that goes into rising commodity prices

  7. VIX index is quite low actually

  8. actually, the yield curve is steep. A flat yield curve is when short term is the same as long term. The curve was flat through large parts 90's bull market as well.

/r/investing Thread