He said he was hoping we could see some sort of relative normalcy by Easter. He literally said “I don’t know, we’ll see.” Some data had come in showing that many countries had made it past the acute stage of the pandemic and that the virus is likely to exhibit seasonality like a lot of other viral infections, I’m guessing that’s what he was going off of. We’re not quite there yet though, and the incubation period is going to drive the beginning of seasonal decline at least 2-3 weeks beyond that of other viruses.

So far from what we know, the virus (R naught of 2.3) is more infectious than the flu (1.3) but far less infectious than the common cold (6.0). It also doesn’t seem to be able to live on surfaces hotter than approximately 110-120 degrees F for longer than a few minutes, and that is typical surface temperature when air temp is around 80 degrees F. 90% of infections have been in areas with a temperature between 30-62 degrees F. This is part of the reason why NY was hit far harder than CA despite both being overpopulated and hotbeds for tourism. I would guess by late April or early May, most states should be in the clear. We’re likely to see the virus return in the fall, and there won’t be a vaccine until early 2021, but at least it’ll buy us some time to get the economy back on track and to prepare our healthcare system for the next wave.

Let’s try to be hopeful, let Trump do his job. No need to yell at the pilot when the plane is crashing.