You are maybe/probably right but I think your analysis is all based on faith in the status quo, and I think it's unwarranted optimism; there is a non-negligible chance of nuclear conflict over the next months.

• Sabre rattling is also a pre-cursor to war. Dictators who want to start a war start with words. E.g. Saddam & Kuwait.

• When someone says something, you should take them at face value. Remember all those people who said Hitler didn't mean what he said? That he would change when he was confronted with the world? It's hopeful thinking to believe that words are different from intentions.

NK said they would develop nuclear weaponry. We were told it was unlikely. They have nukes. NK said they would build ICBMs. We were told it was unlikely. They have ICBMs. NK is saying they will wipe out Guam. We should take them at face value.

• Groups of people can form self-reinforcing thought. They are unable to comprehend outside thought. Nazi party, Khymer Rouge, KKK are all examples, but there are thousands more.

NK is a closed society, with very little info reaching inwards, even to the leadership. Even if they wanted to hear, they may not be able to.