Do you know what guerrilla warfare is? Do you know how it works? Do you understand why it works?

If the populace actually rose up against the government in large numbers then they absolutely could win. You can't beat a large amount of guerrilla fighters in your own country. It's simply not doable. You can't use your "bigger guns" against such a force because you would just be bombing your own cities, destroying your own infrastructure, killing your own civilians and creating even more guerrilla fighters because of the destruction you caused.

Drones? Drones have created more guerrilla fighters than they have killed.

The issue is complicity, people may never rise up as they have been radicalized and brainwashed to believe in a fascist government and to allow said government to infringe upon their rights. You're seeing dangerous complicity right here on Reddit on both sides of the political spectrum.

Right now the right are totally for the fascist rhetoric of the current administration and actively support it and the left are actively campaigning for said administration to take away the populaces semi automatic weapons.

The issue won't be "our guns are useless because can't stand up to the powerful military" the issue will be "our guns are useless because there's nobody to use them"