Predicting an election isn't like rolling a die, it's just analyzing reality. You can't just roll the die multiple times when it comes to assessing real world numbers. When an outlet comes out and says there's a 95 percent chance Hillary will win, that means the outlet is 95 percent confident that these are the numbers they're looking at, and that reality matches up to those numbers. When the result is different, that does not mean that reality was still 95 percent geared toward Hillary winning, but we just had a lucky day, it means that that their numbers were off, that they were overlooking certain factors, and that they were not assessing reality correctly.