So here's a way to think about it:

Compare Tesla's Revenue and FCF (free cashflow) to Toyota's, Toyota is at an order of magnitude higher for both.

https://i.imgur.com/jpvd6WD.png

I know everyone here doesn't want to think of Tesla as a car company, but bear with me for a bit, imagine if we were comparing two car companies (X and Y) and you saw these numbers.

You would expect X which has a magnitude lower FCF and Revenue to be valued at a magnitude lower than Y, given similar growth rates (Toyota was growing revenue every year before covid this year).

Everyone says that we should value Tesla as a tech company, but even if we did, and assume that being a tech company gives it a magnitude higher potential earnings, that still just makes it equal in terms of absolute earnings with Toyota.

Meaning even with giving Tesla the benefit of the doubt, at best the market cap of Tesla should be equal to Toyota.

Currently, Tesla has a 309.15B market cap and Toyota has a 183.39B market cap, if they should be roughly equal, then that means Tesla's share price at best should be around half of where it is now.