Realistically however, it is still unlikely to happen this season, which is the point most people are missing about coefficient and the intense attention it has received this year.

This season, a win for an English team is worth 0.25 points. A win for an Italian team is worth 0.28 points. Ergo from this point onwards, the English teams need to win 2 more matches than the Italian teams (ignoring the qualification bonus points for CL rounds) to see off the challenge for the 4th spot.

Looking at the CL, most people would say that the City will get another win against Kiev and qualify, meaning 0.375 points. Chelsea may win and get through (but it will be close) and Arsenal will go out without a win. Both Italian teams will go out without another win (both need to beat top teams away due to very tough draws).

City will likely bottle it in the R8 (unless a very favourable draw) so to account for that lets say one more win and then out (0.25 points).

Therefore, in theory the CL results will make up the current difference, leaving the English clubs on top and making the EL a straight shootout for 4th spot.

The Europa League is much more difficult to predict. Liverpool should take Augsburg at home (0.25 points), United should cruise past Midtjylland at Old Trafford (0.25 points) and Tottenham/Fiorentina is much harder to call but Tottenham do have the home advantage which is ever so important in Europe. I'd call that a draw (0.03 points in favour of Italy then) with one team going through on penalties.

Lazio could beat Galatasary at home, but it's no sure thing, and Napoli need to beat a good looking Villareal side.

Realistically, with the likely set of results from the next round, the Italian challenge for this year will be over. If they are to overtake England, it will happen next year or the year after, which is when the English clubs seriously need to worry.