UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira (5/21/22)

I don't feel very comfortable betting Medic/O. Morales not going the distance (or U2.5). I know all of Medic' fights have ended inside the distance, but:

  • He now trains at a legit gym (Kings' MMA)

  • He is still young enough to make improvements (just turned 29)

  • We haven't seen him fight for 8 months

  • He's coming off his first loss, so maybe that could inspire him to re-evaluate his style and make some serious changes.

Moreover, O. Morales isn't really a finisher himself. His last finish was at DWCS in 2019. Since then he has had 3 wins, all by decision. One of those decisions was against Gabriel Benitez, who was finished in three of his four losses. Another decision win by Morales was against Dong Hyun Ma, who was finished in all of his four losses prior to losing to Morales. In other words, two men who get finished a lot, except by Morales.

Of course I'm just wiki-capping here and you need to actually study tape, but just based on some basic info, I see some red flags on why this fight could not end inside the distance.

/r/sportsbook Thread