Usefulness of solar power

My original argument was that "They're planning less total solar, this year" doesn't mean "solar is worse." It means "solar is currently smaller, because it started tiny and can only grow so fast."

But what exactly do you think is limiting it's ability to grow faster in the US?

The short answer is that there is less money being poured into it due to less demand due to it not currently being as good as wind in meeting the needs for utility-scale generation in the overall US market.

How fast it can grow is directly tied to how much money the industry is willing to put into it, which is directly tied to how valuable it is to them relative to the alternatives.

Solar (utility scale) in 2014 is the same size as wind in 2005 . Is it going to grow by 10x in the next ten years? Probably more.

Sure, and I predict that overall utility-scale wind investments in the US over the next decade will still beat it because wind is generally a better option in the US, although this is highly dependent on the regulatory and subsidy environment over that time.

For instance, if the US government decides to greatly subsidize solar over the next decade while telling wind to fuck off, that will certainly change my outlook.

By the way, I think if 15 years in the future "technology and attitudes about nuclear have changed" we're still going to be ten years away from completed utility-scale projects.

That is my personal belief as well, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.

The point I was trying to make is that trying to project out the energy generation market 15 years into the future is a pretty inexact science.

As such, there is limited value in arguments that are basically rooted in a prediction of how the market will evolve over the next decade or two.

Doesn't mean solar is better - they do different things well, and thrive in different places.

US-specific numbers (from here ): Solar (utility scale) in 2014 is the same size as wind in 2005 . Is it going to grow by 10x in the next ten years? Probably more.

...and if it does, it still

/r/energy Thread Parent