Using the Poisson Distribution to argue an inventory reduction - is this bad statistics?

Sorry...I typed this late last night and left out some crucial context. In essence, there is a surplus of dead inventory. This inventory is typically held in low quantities x<300 and has a shelf life of five years. The threshold MOI is not actually arbitrary, it's a guideline used to control inventory. Given this, if the inventory doesn't outperform the MOI benchmark, the units need special approval if inventory is to be increased. This is actually a negotiation between an analyst (me) and a sales representative. Just saying: "You have dead stock, return it". Is generally a futile effort. They don't want to return stock, because it lowers the chances of them making a revenue sale. However, my aim is to combat this by saying something like: "well you need to be within the MOI constraint, and the probability of you increasing the sales to get to "x" point is "y"; therefore, the best decision would be to reduce and replace with product "z" because it sells units. Hopefully this clarifies my thinking on this. Perhaps this is still a bad approach, but negotiating with sales reps who are incentive by revenue sales is extremely difficult.

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