Imo the most obvious to me was when the Imperial College model was shown to be off by orders of magnitude. It was the main reason lock downs happened in the first place. Then iirc it was invalidated around the first week or so of lockdowns in the US, end of March 2020. They released the code and a lot of quants/programmers were blasting it on twitter, saying it looked like it was written in the 90s.

So we basically knew this “wartime triage” narrative wasn’t going to happen since the start, but the lockdown cat was out of the bag at that point. Then everyone moved on to arguing about masks and vaccines, and by that point we lost the plot completely. Most people don’t even remember what the Imperial College model was.