VIX, the volatility index, is at its highest level since 2011

As a scientist, I see three scenarios for COVID-19.

  1. Best case: A vaccine is developed within the next year. In that time, the spread is held back using conventional quarantine methods. The methods also reduce the number of break out clusters and the prevalence of the virus becomes very low. Market damage (6-12 months)

  2. Mid case: We do not develop a vaccine for multiple years or the virus mutates (unconfirmed reports of two strains already). This delay could make it become another type of lasting disease, that affects us seasonally like the common flu. In enough time, we will have the infrastructure in place, as with the common flu, to make vaccines for the strains of the new developing virus. This infrastructure will significantly reduce the number of infected and deaths. Market damage (1-3 years)

  3. Worse case: Before I say this, I do not wish to scare anyone. The chances of this happening are extremely rare. The virus infects and spreads at a rapid pace. This pace is too quick to stop and eventually it runs its course through the world. Within a few years, the virus mutates to a very deadly strain (this happened with the black plague). This causes death rates to sky rocket and the world economy suffers to a great extent. Again this is a very rare occurrence that usually only occurs when there are a large number of infected (millions to billions). This gives the virus time and resources to mutate. (Market damage 5-10 years)

/r/StockMarket Thread