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The U.S. emissions scandal engulfing Volkswagen AG has put European rivals on the offensive, as they scramble to show their own diesel engines meet standards in Europe.
A growing backlash against diesel-powered vehicles could spell an end to the long love affair with the fuel in Europe, the region where diesel is most widely adopted and developed.
“Does this signal the end of diesel? Yes, it probably does,” said Max Warburton, an auto analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.
On Tuesday, the French government and British transport officials called for a European probe into car makers and diesel emissions, after the accusations that Volkswagen cheated on U.S. emissions tests. French Environment Minister Ségolène Royal said her ministry is also launching an investigation.
France’s Comité des Constructeurs Français d’Automobiles, the country’s car-manufacturing association, quickly supported the call for a European inquest so it could “confirm that the French makers respect the approval procedures with vigor in all the countries it operates in.”
For European car companies, a lot is at stake from any retreat from diesel. Europe’s auto makers have plowed billions of euros into developing so-called clean diesel technology—fuel-sipping cars fitted with updated emissions systems to reduce the amount of particulate matter and nitrous oxide discharged in the air—which are increasingly popular among drivers in Europe who like the cost savings offered by filling up on cheaper fuel.
French auto makers Renault SA and PSA Peugeot Citroën are reliant on diesel car sales—they make up about half of their total new car sales—though neither sell in the U.S. Both companies said that they are in compliance with the laws and regulations of the markets they serve.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said it also abides by the rules. The Italian-American auto maker sold about the same number of diesel and gasoline cars in Italy in 2014. In the U.S., sales of diesel-powered vehicles are negligible.
Still, their shares were pummeled in Tuesday trading, with Renault falling 7.1% to €66.55 a share and Peugeot sliding 8.8% to €13.86, highlighting investor concern that the emissions scandal could have repercussions beyond Volkswagen. FCA shares declined 6.2% in Milan trading to €11.93.
After more than two decades of European governments and car manufacturers touting diesel engines as a clean alternative, tighter regulation and testing standards could definitively turn the tide, industry experts say.
Meanwhile in the U.S., car makers continue the push to popularize diesel. General Motors Co. said Tuesday that it currently offers bigger diesel engines in large pickup trucks, such as heavy-duty GMC Sierras, but sees an opportunity to use diesel engines built in Europe in smaller products.
GM’s Chevrolet Cruze, a smaller car competing with Volkswagen’s Jetta and Ford Motor Co. ’s Focus in the U.S., can be bought with an optional “clean turbo diesel” engine. The company’s midsize trucks—the Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon—will soon be fitted with new diesels. A spokesman said the company is in discussion with U.S. environmental regulators and conforms to their rules.
Though diesel cars remain a curiosity in the U.S., they are mainstream in Europe with cheap fuel as the major selling point—diesel is between 10% to 20% cheaper at the pump in major markets such as France, Italy and Germany as it is taxed significantly less than gasoline.
In 2014, diesel motors powered two of every five passenger cars on the road in Europe. Diesel cars also made up 53% of all new car sales in the region in 2014.
The growth of diesel in Europe began in the early 1990s, when car makers started to heavily promote it as a clean, cheaper alternative to gasoline.
At the time, diesel cars made up just 10% of Europe’s total fleet and were dogged by a reputation for poor acceleration, loud chugging engines and difficulties starting in cold weather. However, a series of innovations closed the performance gap between them and gasoline-powered cars, and consumers became increasingly drawn to them, especially when oil prices soared in the 2000s.
European governments also applauded diesel engines because they were more fuel-efficient compared with gasoline-powered cars, and less burned fuel meant fewer carbon-dioxide emissions. Policy makers handed out incentives, sometimes in the form of cash bonuses back to consumers, for diesel-powered cars.
But the love for diesel has begun to wane in recent years. Diesel-powered cars are blamed for worsening air quality in Europe’s biggest cities because of their emissions in nitrous oxide and particulate matter. In France, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo earlier this year spurred controversy by calling for an outright ban on diesel within the borders of the capital.
Car companies are also facing stricter emissions standards and testing regimes, which could close the competitive advantage of diesel over gasoline. Europe’s latest emissions standards, known as Euro 6, will be subject to “real world” tests—as opposed to testing performed in controlled laboratory conditions.
A spokeswoman for the European Automobile Manufacturing Association said the organization is asking for clarification on new testing standards based on everyday driving conditions so its members can enforce them accordingly on their cars.
Stuart Pearson, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, said many car makers will face much higher costs if their models are to comply with the new standards.
“Volkswagen’s U.S. headache is only the latest setback for diesel,” he said. “Popular, and hence political, opinion is leaning away from diesel, and compliance costs rising.”
Analysts say a drop in diesel-powered cars would be matched by an increase in the use of gasoline, hybrid and electric cars, though that would be a sharp challenge for European firms.
Jos Dings, director at Transport & Environment, a Belgium-based think tank, says the Volkswagen scandal will spur increasing scrutiny and a harsher look at what was once seen as Europe’s favored fuel.
“The U.S. is calling out a European technology,” said Mr. Dings. “The industry here has many reasons to be ashamed, and so do European regulators.”