vS Data Reaper Report #86

I’m trying to come up with alternatives, hoping the rest of the community pitches in and together we can find a better solution than grouping the two decks to one. As I see it, distinct identification of the two decks raises two problems: (1) insufficient information, and (2) selection bias. The first is that the two decks mostly overlap so some matches end up with the set of cards being played not enough to distinguish between the two decks. The second issue is that given an identifying card being played, the probability of winning becomes much higher than the unconditional one. e.g., if skull is played then cubelock is more likely to win. In my opinion the solution must be how to weight and attribute the wins/losses to the two decks. I think another important aspect we are disregarding when thinking about (2) is that VS does see also cards that weren’t played and only drawn if the player playing warlock is the one using trackobot.

I am happy to give a detailed suggestion for how I think we can properly put the weights, but it’s not very motivating when all I get is just more and more downvotes :X

/r/CompetitiveHS Thread Parent