Week 14 NCAAF Early Lines

I think there's some value in Iowa to win the B1G Championship game straight up, but I'm hoping to get a little more juice out of it before I make the bet. I am nearly certain the money is going to come in on MSU .. probably won't get hammered, but I could see it closing at +4.5 or +5.5 - Even if I'm wrong, don't think it will drop any lower than MSU -3

I think Iowa matches up quite well. Iowa have played 3 of the top 15 rushing defenses in the country and none of them were able to contain the run. This is nothing new .. Iowa has an elite o-line every year, Belichek himself called Ferentz "The best offensive line coach he's ever been around". Just so happens this year Iowa has a complete team to compliment the o-line. You've got probably the best game manager in the country in Beathard - makes very few mistakes and a high football IQ - as well as a seemingly endless stable of talented running backs. I don't see MSU's defense being able to contain Iowa's offensive attack.

Iowa's "Bend don't break" style of defense is trouble for Cook in my opinion. They'll absolutely let you nickel and dime them down the field .. the problem is that's hard to do. You have to be precise to do that. If you're not precise, you're going to throw interceptions. Cook is actually 10th in the Big Ten (nearly dead last) in completion percentage. Coincidentally Iowa's defense ranks #8 nationally in interceptions and #3 amongst Power 5 teams - mind you, in a conference where point totals are low and the run game tends to dominate. Cook's TD/INT ratio is elite (24/4), but he has played against only one defense this year in the top 50 in the "interceptions" category. It was #34 Rutgers - he threw for 367 two TD's and 1 INT .. MSU won beat them in a close game by 7 points. Desmond King is the best DB he's faced all year - Thorpe award finalist and he leads the nation in interceptions. Burbridge v King will be an awesome matchup to watch .. both likely have a future in the NFL.

Bottom Line: I trust Iowa to make fewer mistakes than MSU. I think Iowa got lucky with this matchup - I believe MSU is the team they are most suited to compete with from the B1G East. I don't see MSU's defense being able to contain Iowa at all, and while I do think Cook will put up some possibly gaudy numbers, I think Iowa's style of D is very well suited to force him into turning the ball over. He could come out and pick them apart - he is talented enough to do it, but this is a 50/50 game at worst for Iowa in my opinion. The country and betting public probably has MSU's last two wins burned into their memory - but that OSU game they were practically playing in a monsoon a la Baylor TCU last weekend, and Penn State turned the ball over 4 times. I give MSU full credit for those wins - it's tough to beat OSU anywhere. But this game is being played in a dome and Iowa averages less than 1 turnover per game.

/r/sportsbook Thread