What are peoples thought on an Omicron lockdown?

First measles is an entirely different deal and I did not intend to imply this pattern was categorically true of all pathogens.

R0 has been all over the place with these variants. Not surprising since measles that has been extensively studied for generations still ranges from 12-18. I don't see much support for alpha or delta being more contagious though. A lot of reporting to that effect relies on early estimate numbers. Or ignoring vaccine efficacy y in the comparison.

Producing forecast models is part of my profession, but not medical. I have had onteraction with some of the people working on these models and they seem to think a significantly more virulent and significantly more contagious strain is extremely unlikely to be produced in nature. That a more virulent strain will benoutcompeted by milder more contagious strains. There have been several strains that have not been covered as this occurred.

/r/auckland Thread Parent