"This is all speculation, of course."

Because of a SEVERE lack of data, speculation is in order.

"The tictac met at their secret CAP point. How would they know that location?"

Maybe because the drone is from the same team.

"flying 150 ft between airborne US fighter jets"

Maybe the object (balloons) was stationary, and the jets flew past it.

"this disclosure process would have to come from our governments"

Governments lie. Many people would not believe such extra-ordinary claims coming from government anyway. Some people would demand proof.

This comment is to present a different perspective (narrative) from the OP.