How closely do our perceptions match reality is the entire question to think.

Obviously they do not match reality. But our perceptions do model the regularity that's exists in some sense.

We sense dynamics that operate in the limit, and these dynamics that converse are essentially geometry. This is what we talk about when we talk about the perceived outside world Descarte referred to as Res Extensa.

But res Extensa is also a part of the the mind that is generating perceptions and the 2nd order models of representation.

We can also see that these sort of things are derivative. They are languages we can talk with, specifically mathemetical language. And I believe that computation - the domain of mathematics that allows for complete implementation - is what our universe is fundamentally.

If we look at what can exist, computationally, we see what is provable and what is true. We also see that these two concepts are the same thing.

So how do we know what to do? We perform computational models to represent the computation being formed around us in representational models. Right?

So if I am looking at what is happening in my society, I need to know all possible things that can happen in this space - all possible computations in this space. And of course this is impossible. So we must become rational soothsayers. We must use, to the best of our ability, the core principle of rationality. Which is to make a coherent story that never fails to equal what has happened - a causal model that shows us what is happening.

This isn't very difficult if you have the right priors. But the consequences of any said predictions are impossible because probably of the conservation if information. It's only all going forward. We're just stuck in the middle of it all.