I calculated it at 2% a few days ago. This was based on a source that claimed we've had 64 this year. That means we average around one every five days, and there's a 20% chance of one on any given day. Based on this, we should expect 7-8 before the year ends, and there's a 98% chance that at least one will occur before the end of the year... Then I saw other sources saying we've had over 600 this year??? No way, because that's like two per day, right? Anyway, it's safe to say that there's no definite answer because of the varying parameters that can be used to manipulate the statistical outcomes, and unreliability of the data, so I'm just going to leave it at saying that our chances of winning the world cup are probably much higher... and that's not to be said without disclaiming that I advise against betting on the US versus England on the money line to those that may have a gambler's dilemma...