Yeah, those Detroit Lions keep winning Super Bowl after Super Bowl while they "win" the draft every year.

Even if you think he's only 50% likely to play 15+ games, that's a 50% chance of being a league winner.

This is some high level off-season delusion, thinking that any single player in any given year. Even LT in 2006 and CMC in 2019 weren't guarantees you would win your league or even that 50% clip you suggest. Fantasy football just doesn't work that way, the rosters are far too large for a single player to have such a single season performance that it dwarfs even the 2OA or 3OA.

Every season and off-season everyone wrings their hands about 1OA but I see that position bust more than I see it boom. We draft our draft position in my league and I steer clear of 1OA and being "forced" into the best player.