What's your hunch? I've got mine.

My hunches:

A. Every caucus-goer in Iowa, and most voters in New Hampshire, know that:

  1. Predictions of "Biden's un-electability" were the main assumption behind Buttigieg & 10 other centrists entering the race,

  2. Durability of countervailing confidence in "Biden's electability" has been the only thing keeping Biden afloat in opinion polls,

  3. Predictions of "Bernie's un-electability" were the main assumption behind Warren entering the race,

B. Last-minute emphasis on "Electability comparisons undermines unity of Democrats":

  1. Will insult many in Iowa and New Hampshire who see these comparisons as part of their "early state" job description -- including many who previously leaned towards non-Bernie candidates precisely because of electability, and

  2. Will annoy and perhaps help turn out many independents who will perceive (correctly ) that "unity among Democrats" implies "double down on excluding independents from influence before the final lesser-evil choice."

/r/WayOfTheBern Thread