Chargers over Steelers?: A Chargers win gives us breathing room if we lose to the Steelers in Week 15, but if we assume we will beat the Steelers, then a Steelers win lets us control the #2 seed.

We should control our destiny for a first-round bye either way.

The Chargers play the Chiefs in Week 15. If the Chiefs win, then the Chargers are a 4-loss team and we're in 2nd over them. If the Chargers win, the Chiefs, Pats and Chargers are all 3 loss teams. Chiefs win the division over the Chargers (division record) and then we get the bye over the Chiefs (head-to-head).

Even if we throw in the Texans at 13-3, the Pats jump to the #1 seed due to head-to-head tie breaker over the Chiefs and Texans because we apparently only lose to terrible teams.

If it's Texans, Pats and Chargers at 13-3 (Chiefs lose to the Chargers and one other game), then the Texans win the three-way but we're still in second over the Chargers due to record in common games.

TL;DR - Those wins over the Chiefs and Texans are really huge right now.