I think it's going to be very close
I thought with Dune being on HBO Max, it would significantly decrease it's performance but I've been delighted with the success of movies like Godzilla Vs. Kong, Wonder Woman 1984, etc. This seems like another one that audiences will opt to see on the big screen. I can see a $40-50+ million OW. Can see buzz picking up throughout the summer and into the first week of October.
Hotel Transylvania 4 will probably hold well throughout October as it has that Halloween movie for kids vibe. It will be interesting to see if Sony tries to market this as the final one. I think HT3 might have done this? I'm curious to see if there's any franchise fatigue in this. I'm going to go and guess this barely performs under Dune that weekend with around $30-35 million OW.