I mean, can we be serious for a second?
Let's talk data. What is the purpose of your data? I assume the main purpose is to ensure you do not accidentally ban people from disconnecting, correct?
So let's look at it this way, if you knew 100% if the player was exploiting or not(on purpose) you could easily punish them. However, legit disconnects do happen, so you have to go to your data and see how frequent it is.
Case in point, you know with certainty TLHot was exploiting, so why is the data even relevant? Are you suggesting you were allowed to exploit a certain % of games? How is that fair at all? At the high ratings, Plat/Diamond, you can lose 30 points and gain 5. Even a 5 game window of not being able to lose can be the difference in over 100 point loss. At the top of the ladder exploiting is a huge problem.
I also know a few other exploiters(see sp1n_kuro) who were not punished now are bragging about it. I've seen him leave personally so I don't get how you can pretend it didn't happen.
Let's ask some facts about your data: -Did you cross reference your "disconnect" list with how frequent they disconnected in other game modes?
-Did you analyze at what times they disconnected, and the state of the game?
-Did they only disconnect when losing?
-Did they ever reconnect when losing?
-Did they ever deny the reconnection message?
-Are they high rank, high gold-diamond, and did they exploit at the top of the ladder?(1 exploit in plat+ is worse then 10+ in silver.)
I'm asking so many questions because you guys are clearly analyzing the wrong sets of data. Saying you're allowed to exploit a low amount of times is what you just said, more or less, which I think you have a fundamental miscommunication with the community. You made it sound like on stream you would try to ban all exploiters and cross check to avoid false positives, now you are saying you will allow a certain % of exploiters, but if most of their exploits were only at 1900+ and they had a 100 games before that, that last climb is the difference between top 200 and top 5, so I think your system is flawed.
You know this guy exploited, it should be a case closed situation. He's sitting here laughing at NCSoft in the screenshot, so is the rest of the community.