While Russia has been less successful in this stage of the war than they had hoped, I don’t think the situation is as dire as some claim. The idea that Russia was going to take over the entire country in 3-days was never really on the table. I think the original hope was for them to have everything west of the Dnipro - but their current land bridge to Crimea will be enough. Most academics before the “invasion” were more concerned about energy diplomacy during winter than the actual battle.
Realistically, ZNPP is such a sticking point not because of the risk of Russia “blowing it up”; make no mistake they can blow it up any time they want. If Putin wanted it gone there is little that could be done to stop him.
Rather it’s the implication for the quality of life between the residents caught in the conflict. Those on Russia side are going to have heat; those on the Ukrainian side won’t. You have to ask yourself, does the Ukrainian farmer in Zavody really care if his taxes go to Moscow or Kiev, so long as his kids are fed and his bed is warm? That’s Moscow’s game plan going into the winter months. A shining city upon a hill.
This was all outlined before the conflict began. Russia hasn’t been as successful as they hoped militarily - but their strategy has fundamentally changed. They’ve so far held all their key objectives and maintain control of what they need to control. Part of the reason we are seeing such a large psyop is to bulwark the civilian populace against the looming winter.
As for the EU/NATO aspect - I think the writing is on the wall. Every analysis, just check this week’s issue of the Economist, acknowledges that the pain in the European energy markets are just beginning. A recession is happening, we are merely trying to lessen the blow. That gives the Chinese significant leverage in their Belt and Road initiative projects - as the Western powers are forced into austerity policies to weather the storm. Likewise, the sanctions only impact Russia in so far as you view western hegemony as a foregone conclusion. A stronger trade relationship between the two eastern powers serves to grow markets for Chinese domestic suppliers, reduce their dependence on Western imports, and establish a whole secondary ecosystem. All three lines of effort being highlights are major priorities over their next 5 year plan for the country.
In essence, Russia went all in on Chinese ascension. Their fates are now intertwined. China will buy as much gas, materials, food, as Russia can supply them. Ironically, the lower the West pushes the price, the stronger China will be by comparison. Make no mistake: this is a proxy war.