[gen3] the other day I became the luckiest shiny hunter in the world. I found 2 full odds (1/8192) shiny pkmn in a row. A mudkip then my first encounter after was a shiny zigzagoon. (DS capture card not an emulator)

This comment was posted to reddit on Jul 19, 2021 at 9:34 am and was deleted within 1 day, 22 minutes.

[gen3] the other day I became the luckiest shiny hunter in the world. I found 2 full odds (1/8192) shiny pkmn in a row. A mudkip then my first encounter after was a shiny zigzagoon. (DS capture card not an emulator)

I'm making perfect sense, but I apparently didn't explain it sufficiently ;)

The odds for any single encounter to be shiny are (in this case) 1 in 8192. That's not the same as the chance to get a shiny at all!

Unless you give up, the chance of getting a single shiny is 100%, since the point of a shiny hunt is do do as many encounters as needed to get the shiny.

For back to back shinies, the only encounter that matters is the one after the original shiny. This is a single encounter that thus has a 1 in 8192 chance to be shiny.

The key is that it doesn't matter when the first shiny happens, so its odds are irrelevant. Does that make sense? I find it somewhat hard to explain statistics over text like this.

/r/ShinyPokemon Thread Parent Link - i.redd.it

[gen3] the other day I became the luckiest shiny hunter in the world. I found 2 full odds (1/8192) shiny pkmn in a row. A mudkip then my first encounter after was a shiny zigzagoon. (DS capture card not an emulator)

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