It occurred to me a few days ago that it seemed as if there was much less scoring by established (popular in pools) defensemen this year, so I decided to look into it. It began in thinking that there was a large decrease in scoring by shots from the point, but I expanded this to include some purer playmaking types as well.
Below I've looked at each of the listed players' goals and assists and how their 15-16 totals would have averaged over the same number of games that they've played this year.
Current season scoring against last year's scoring.
| Player | GP | G | '16 G | G Δ | A | '16 A | A Δ | Pts | '16 Pts | Pts Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrie | 16 | 1 | 2.7 | (-1.7) | 5 | 7.4 | (-2.4) | 6 | 10.1 | (-4.1) |
| Burns | 17 | 6 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 8 | 10.0 | (-2.0) | 14 | 15.5 | (-1.5) |
| Byfuglien | 19 | 1 | 4.5 | (-3.5) | 9 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 10 | 12.4 | (-2.4) |
| Carlson | 16 | 0 | 2.3 | (-2.3) | 7 | 8.9 | (-1.9) | 7 | 11.1 | (-4.1) |
| Chara | 17 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 6.0 | (-3.0) | 4 | 7.9 | (-3.9) |
| Doughty | 18 | 2 | 3.1 | (-1.1) | 4 | 8.1 | (-4.1) | 6 | 11.2 | (-5.2) |
| Ekblad | 17 | 4 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 4.6 | (-4.6) | 4 | 7.8 | (-3.8) |
| Ekman-Larsson | 16 | 5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 7.3 | (-4.3) | 8 | 11.7 | (-3.7) |
| Faulk | 12 | 3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| Giordano | 18 | 1 | 4.6 | (-3.6) | 5 | 7.7 | (-2.7) | 6 | 12.3 | (-6.3) |
| Green | 17 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 8 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 11 | 8.0 | 3.0 |
| Hedman | 18 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 10 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 13 | 10.8 | 2.2 |
| Josi | 16 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 9.3 | (-3.3) | 8 | 12.0 | (-4.0) |
| Karlsson | 17 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 13.7 | (-2.7) | 14 | 17.0 | (-3.0) |
| Keith | 17 | 0 | 2.3 | (-2.3) | 12 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 12 | 10.9 | 1.1 |
| Klingberg | 18 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 11.4 | (-4.4) | 9 | 13.7 | (-4.7) |
| Leddy | 15 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 6.5 | (-2.5) | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| Letang | 11 | 1 | 2.5 | (-1.5) | 8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 9 | 10.4 | (-1.4) |
| McDonagh | 17 | 0 | 2.1 | (-2.1) | 11 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 11 | 7.9 | 3.1 |
| Parayko | 18 | 0 | 2.1 | (-2.1) | 7 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| Pietrangelo | 18 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 7.4 | (-2.4) | 8 | 9.1 | (-1.1) |
| Ristolainen | 16 | 0 | 1.8 | (-1.8) | 8 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Seabrook | 17 | 1 | 2.9 | (-1.9) | 9 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| Shattenkirk | 18 | 4 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 10 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 14 | 11.0 | 3.0 |
| Subban | 16 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 7 | 10.6 | (-3.6) | 10 | 12.0 | (-2.0) |
| Suter | 16 | 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 12 | 10.0 | 2.0 |
| Weber | 17 | 7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 11.1 | 1.9 |
| Yandle | 17 | 0 | 1.0 | (-1.0) | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 9.7 | (-1.7) |
Group Averages and Sums
| Players | GP | G | '16 G | G Δ | A | '16 A | A Δ | Pts | '16 Pts | Pts Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | 16.6 | 2.3 | 2.7 | (-0.5) | 6.9 | 7.8 | (-0.9) | 9.1 | 10.5 | (-1.4) |
| Sum | 465 | 63 | 75.8 | (-12.8) | 192 | 218.2 | (-26.2) | 255 | 294.1 | (-39.1) |
Goals and assists (and thus, points) are down overall.
A -1.4 point spread across this group of players equates to a ~13% drop in scoring from these defensemen.
Only Weber, Suter, Leddy, Subban, Green, and Pietrangelo are scoring at a statistically significant [>abs1.0] higher rate, while 12 players are noticeably cold. Unsurprisingly, five of those six hot players were among the bottom six in goal-scoring pace last year - out of this group - so their 15-16 pace is easier to top.
There are more hot assist-producing players than there are hot goal-scorers, but there are also a greater number of cold playmakers. McDonagh is greatly outpacing his two previous seasons of 25 assists and Keith is assisting at a pace similar to his 13-14 campaign. McDonagh's performance is easily explained by the Rangers' crazy scoring rate so far.
There are only 7 d-men listed here with [>1.0] points compared to last year, as opposed to 16 with [<1.0]. Josi, Barrie, Carlson, Klingberg, Doughty, and Giordano owners should have their feelings validated, as their players ARE performing much worse thus far.
Some of these values can be directly related to the situations within the teams. Suter (+), Barrie (-), and Giordano (-) are in different coaching situations; Calgary specifically relied a lot on their defense for scoring last season. Byfuglien (Laine) and Josi (Weber) are subjected to shifts in how their team is scoring by way of addition or subtraction of teammates. Some players, like Karlsson and Burns, are simply having a tough time matching their torrid scoring pace from last season.
Some of the drop may also be explained in how these players were picked - that many "established" (and admittedly, cherry-picked) players are older ad some of the data could be capturing career declines in scoring.
What's not possible to tie to a player/team is the decline in points overall. I believe a great deal of this has to do with the WHC superseding training camp and causing some high-profile injuries or creating wide differences in opening day preparedness.
It isn't necessarily a large sample of games, especially when a difference of a goal or two can swing performance so wildly, but a sample of 28 players is enough to smooth the "risk" considerably and I'm confident in the legitimacy of these findings, despite the season being <20 games old.
What do y'all think about the shift in scoring this year and how it affects pool hockey? Are you able to shift your strategy towards forwards or goaltenders? Are you going to target some slumping d-men?