I used to play a lot of poker. Probably the biggest reason recreational players lose all their money is that they play every single hand. If you can train a rec player to only play about 10-15% of hands (AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, etc.) then they will play better and at least lose less. The setup before the flop allows a much higher percentage chance of winning. Do you win every hand with AA? No, but your chances are much better than if you are entering pots with speculative off-suit low cards.

I am trying to translate that to the market. I should only play premium hands; i.e., only play when there is a high probability setup. Overtrading has been my leak all year and trying to do too much has cost me.

To apply that to today, I am not going to do anything if the market opens at say, 3670. Do we go up? Do we go down? Did I enter at the right time? There is a lot of anxiety built into these decisions because the timing of it puts your play in limbo. That's why people are switching from calls to puts to calls to puts and never seem to time anything right. If we see a clear backtest up, I will probably buy something. But if that happens, I'll wait.

Waiting for a better setup is usually the correct play. FOMO is the killer of bankrolls. To draw on poker again, you see players pissed because they "would have flopped a straight" and they get FOMO and play more hands. That is being outcome-driven, not process-driven. Applying that to the market, I am going to try to be more selective in the hands I play and to wait for my spots to buy. Missing out on gains I would have had is part of a healthy and steady process. Capital preservation in the long run wins this game and it's a lesson that I have been and am learning the hard way. Patience is your friend.