Office NCAA pool - Did my boss inadvertently provide an edge for picking duke to win?

Oh for sure it's a crap shoot, I know that, but maybe I didn't really explain thought process well enough.

I know that nobody picks a completely correct bracket and the odds that Duke wins the tournament aren't changed, but being that they're already among the favorites, and assuming fewer people choose them to win because of my boss' stated distaste for them, doesn't the value of picking them increase slightly?

For example if every single person in the pool chooses UNC to win against Villanova, then the final game is essentially meaningless within the pool. But if one person chooses Villanova to beat UNC, and IF Villanova wins, their odds of ending up with more points than the others increases. Maybe they don't have a higher chance of winning overall, but they have an edge if things do go their way.

So obviously Duke still has to do well and it's a crap shoot regardless like you said, but if they do make it to the final and win, and if fewer people chose them, the points received have more value because fewer people receive them.

This is just my thought process. I'm here to learn so if I'm wrong tell me so, but please explain why too.


/r/gambling Thread Parent