Vote + wall-of-text

This fight is hard to predict because EVERYTHING that Les does is conditional. EVERYTHING. Even his blade is based on a probability of guessing the opponents weight correctly.

This kind of character is difficult to judge in non-interactive tournaments. I think the character is very fascinating, but /u/TheSpectatr, I hope your next character (for the next tournament) is more suited to theorycrafting. I really like your powers and design, so I really do hope you also join the next tournament.

ANYWAY. I haven't made up my mind yet.

I will assume that Les either guesses the weight right or that DWAT doesn't respond (thinking that if he answers, it is a trick).

SO, at the beginning, Les gets his 1 foot knife (I would NOT call that a sword, haha).

I will start by saying that Les has to fight somewhat defensively, given the nature of Dwat's tools.

MATH TIME:

Probability of X happening = P(X)

KEY PROBABILITIES:

• P(a level 2-4 ability) = P(operation) * P(Level 2-4) = 0.5 * 0.75 = 0.375 = 37.5%.........(so 37.5% of getting a speed increase, 37.5% chance of getting a shield or better with subtraction)

• P(2 level 1 rolls) if two abilities are activated = (1-P(a level 2-4 ability))² = 40% (meaning that 60% of the time, Les will have at least )

• P(subtracting shackles) = P(Sub) * P(Level 4) = 0.5 * 0.25 = 12.5%

• The Mora Knife will be useless vs a conjurer, so Dwat will likely not even bring it out
• Bullets will disrupt Les's concentration, effectively reduce his speed/reaction time. Unfortunately, Les has no tools to block the bullets, so he will have to dodge them. With Les having a speed of 2, this will be...very difficult. Les will have to rely on the concrete barriers, the trees, OR his Addition level 2-4 (which increase his own speed). The probability that he will get a Level 2-4 Addition is 37.5% (see MATH TIME below). I will assume that through a combination of using cover + increased speed, Les can avoid the bullets. But this will only happen 60% of the time (so 40% of the time, I think he would get hit by bullets)
• Groping blade will be difficult to hit with, since in this match, I assume that Les will have his blade

DUE TO GROPING BLADE being Dwat's obvious best option, this match will CERTAINLY devolve into a knife-fight.

• Dwat is faster than Les naturally, and even with the faster reaction time granted to Les 60% of the time, this should only put him EVEN with Dwat. This means that the majority of the time

NOW IT"S TIME TO LOOK AT LES'S ABILITIES that can help or hinder in a knife-fight

Addition:

• Level 1: strength is useless in a knife fight. Speed will help
• Level 2: the speed increase helps tremendously, but it would only put him EQUAL to Dwat
• Level 3: damage is NOT the main goal of Dwat's attacks, so this is useless (except for the fact that it grants speed + vision)
• Level 4: speed is the only benefit. Damage + healing don't help vs Dwat

therefore, Level 1 does nothing to help Les; and Levels 2-4 sort of help equally. The shorter cooldown helps for obvious reasons. Addition is NOT Les's best hope this match

Subtraction:

• Level 1: tripping Dwat 1 time every 3 minutes helps a lot
• Level 2: the shield helps Les avoid Dwat's faster attacks. But odds are that after Dwat realizes the shield is there, he will attempt to destroy it. Meaning Level 2 will help Les tank only a few more attacks
• Level 3: The snake will put Dwat on the defensive rather than the offensive, possibly giving Les a chance to cut Dwat and lessen his attack power by 1/12
• Level 4: is of GREAT HELP to Les. This effectively reduces Dwat's speed (i'm guessing by 1-1.5 speed units), which meas that the knife fight swings heavily in the favor of Les

MATH BREAK:

Level 2-4 of addition help only with speed. Level 1-4 of subtraction increasingly reduce Dwat's effectiveness at fighting. Les will PRAY for subtraction.

P(L4 Subtraction) = 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.0625 = 6.25%..........P(NOT GETTING L4 Sub with two active powers = (1-0.0625)² = 87.9%...so Les CANNOT rely on getting the shackles.

Les will NOT get the shackles almost 9 times out of 10

SO. It is my opinion that Les will lose the knife fight. Meaning that Les will probably end up blinded. Meaning that Les loses this match.

The case is a nonfactor. Once Les is blind, Les loses.