Stolen base round robin:

This is a lotto based on very amateur analysis of SB stats plus a little intuition. All lines are DK.

NYY Anthony Volpe o 0.5 SB +310 ARI Corbin Carroll o 0.5 SB +320 CHC Nico Hoerner o 0.5 SB +330 MIL Bruce Turang o 0.5 DB +500

Sizing can be whatever, this is a lotto. I’m 1u total (.6u by 2’s, .2u by 3’s, .2u 4leg parlay. Parlay is +44237). Volpe, Carroll, and Hoerner are as likely to get an SB as anyone today since at the moment Mullins/Mateo/Berti are not avail on DK. Turang is a wild card—Yelich might be a safer bet but I like Turang’s line.

Carroll: Yu Darvish gives up a solid number of SBs (1 per 12.5 IP last three years). Carroll has stolen in 3 out of 7 SBOs (stolen base opportunities) this year. He logged 30+ SBs in the minors last season. Has a good shot to get on base, as he has Darvish’s number (he hit his first MLB HR against Darvish last year) and is very good against righties. Could sub in his teammates Rojas (if playing) or McCarthy, but I like Carroll best here.

Volpe: NYY are have been attempting lots of steals so far. Volpe has stolen on 3/7 SBOs. He and Torres have all the Yanks’ steals. This is a crapshoot.

Hoerner: Cessa gives up a fair number of steals (last year around 1 per 13 IP). Hoerner is 1 for 5 against Cessa with 2 BB (a solid .429 OBP). Cubs were 4th last year in SBs and Hoerner led the team with 20 (out of 22 attempts). Cubs have had a near league average 60 SBOs this year but only 2 SB attempts (1 SB and 1 CS). Hoping for some regression tonight. Swanson an option but he’s attempted just 1/23 SBOs this year (he got caught) compared to Hoerner’s 1/4. Swanson also 1/4 against Cessa all time with a .250 OBP fwiw.

Brice Turang: Had an SB (and grand slam) yesterday. Stole a ton of bases in the minors. Crapshoot. Scherzer is a rightie, and leftie Turang has only faced righties this year/is crushing it. Hoping for no grand slams, and a single plus SB instead.