I'd like to throw some numbers out there and get some thoughts. I'm skeptical of all the price targets people are putting out there that are over $0.10 in the next 12 months.

Sure if you're in now at $0.01, you'll do well as the projected dividends are 100% annual return. Awesome. but for the price to rise more than 10x, the returns also need to increase. A lot.

If we look at it like a traditional price vs earnings situation, people will want at worst 10/1. Meaning that for every $10,000 invested, they get $1000 in annual dividends. This would put the price at $0.10 with a marketplace turning over $500MM. For the stock/dividends to continue returns at 10/1 and reach $0.50, the marketplace must have an additional $2b in sales. A total of $2.5b annually. How many years till we see that sort of volume?

I'm a 6 figure Safex owner and want to see this succeed. However I'm just dubious as to how people think safex can be worth $1-$2 a coin anytime soon.

After some tinkering on the calculator, I've found that for each coin to be worth $1, the marketplace needs to have $5 billion of sales which would give ten cents on the dollar as a return.

Considering the risks of a new marketplace 10% isn't all that attractive really is it? Especially considering the growth rates of other successful coins.

Value of goods sold on eBay last year was $35 billion. The market cap of eBay is $40 billion. Due to their approx 10% fees that puts their price/earnings at 10/1 approx.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that although everyone who is invested now will do well, I don't see how a new investor is going to justify buying safex in the next 12 months at $0.50 if they are getting a 2% annual return. (Based on $500m sales)

I really hope I've got this wrong and someone can correct my numbers to show safex will go to $1 and give us a hundred bagger. :)