Speaking as someone who drafted the Bears last year early and the Patriots in 4 leagues this year, it’s definitely possible to predict what defenses are going to be the best, and I don’t say this is to brag by any means. I’m someone who doesn’t really keep up with off-season moves until a few weeks before the season and I’m not super tapped into stuff, I didn’t even know until a few weeks ago that Mixon led the AFC in rushing last year, but predicting the best defense isn’t that hard

Last year people slept on the Bears because they were a bad team the year before and they didn’t expect a leap, but they still finished as a top 10 defense (not sure about fantasy wise, but real life wise) that year. So then when you added the best or 2nd best defensive player in the entire league to that mix with Mack and a pretty good schedule, it wasn’t very hard to see coming

This year it wasn’t hard with the patriots just by looking at the schedule and the QBs they get to play, and factoring in that they were already a really good defense last year + supposed to be the most run heavy team this year

Just go down a list and even before the season you could see

Big Ben = good QB but most interceptions last year

Fitz/Rosen 2x

Darnold 2x

Josh allen 2x

Keenum/Haskins

Eli/Jones

Dak

2 of the worst offensive lines in the league with Bengals and Texans

And tbf I would’ve counted Lamar as a favorable matchup before the season, but he’s great now. On the flip side though, Mayfield has been a lot rougher so far. There’s only 2 matchups with Mahomes and Wentz that you wouldn’t feel good about starting against before the season

I always go for D/ST and Kicker early because I feel they give you a bigger margin for error when other starters underperform, and the gap between the best and the rest is pretty big. I think if you splurge early on the best QB, D/ST, TE, and Kicker you can still be in position to pick up big time RBs and WRs as they emerge throughout the season.