What if he applied this kind of thinking to divorce rates(how we treat one another)? Newspaper statistics tell me it's 50/50 like they are the same as these "experts". I bet there a noble prize out there some where in /r/economics or /r/relationships. I'm young and dumb(mostly dum) but as I walk through my life and try to apply my intuition(my experiences from my own view) to reconcile what statistically things are telling me. Basically What others tell me?
Why is it ok to apply this to fantasy football and not relationships? I know Is a "not very pc" thing to think about but im trying to make it illustrative and its a good model of thinking but how do we apply this? What makes us better? What,I think Marks is trying to get at , why do we make these bets? More money? Better life for me/my clients at the societal good for others? Richness in life? Should I let my wife(I'm not married I don't have a wife) think something that I disagree with for the sake of smoothing things over?
Or maybe in the case of Gemeni 8. As the report goes, Armstrong was a flicker of his brain away from not being the first man on the moon. Even the divorce(what I come to think divorce as is just the "measure of disagreement") for Astronauts, "the best of the best," is 50%.
I'm in fantasy leagues and I have to admit I've thought similar things as Marks but(playing devils advocate) is his sample size large enough? My experience tells me he's pretty close to the truth. Is one season big enough? Is 250( How long USA has been an actual nation in the estimated 13 Billion years of the universe). or do we just get married to someone hoping we end up on the "right" side of 50/50. He hints at something right...our "highest convictions" sometimes end in being our worst bets.
What makes Marks write a letter like this? Is he right? Or does he talk truths? Is there any absolute truth or do we cling to things that we think make us stronger, like some barracudas I saw diving the GBR when I was a kid(21). Do we Kling to the anchors boats drop because in the vastness of he ocean is scary?