3. [Q] Weight Race allocation method

[Q] Weight Race allocation method

—- the comment I was replying to disappeared but maybe someone can help me understand...

Thanks for the reply. You have a good point about looking for things without a plan. I have tested it with pseudo random variables and like you said, we do see this pattern with random variables.

What is confusing me though is; intuition would tell us that in a district where there was a high percentage of republican straight party votes vs Democrat straight party votes, we would expect to see a similarly high percentage of non straight party votes for the republican candidate. That is to say, in a given district where republicans won 80% of the straight party votes, it seems ridiculous to say it is equally likely that republicans won 20% of non straight party votes and that they won 80% of non straight party votes.

Since each district’s vote totals are a sample of the population’s preferences, I don’t think we can say the straight party votes and the non straight party votes are independent. Im not sure of the implications of our non independent variables behaving like independent random variables.

It is possible that many republicans voted for Biden, but it seems odd to me that the better republicans did in the straight party totals, the worse they comparatively did in the non straight party totals.

This of course doesn’t take into account straight party voting habits of the two parties, but I do think it warrants a closer look.

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