I agree that if it took 20 minutes to get a ride SDCs wouldn't take off. I am working under the assumption that wait times would be less than a minute. That is based off of this study.
I imagine it would depend on the area.
For example if I'm downtown, getting a cab is pretty easy. If I'm at home in the suburbs, it takes a phone call and hours.
It would also depend on distance. In the city, taxis don't have to go far between riders. But in the suburbs, a taxi driver might have to go 10 miles or more after dropping one person up to get the next. Plus, there could be quite a wait before the next rider.
Translating that into jonnycabs, it means you either have a wait between ordering a cab and getting one, or you have a lot of jonnycabs not earning money. That latter situation means higher costs per ride, especially if you have them driving around empty waiting for a rider. If you have them sitting in a central location, it means longer waits.
Also, studies like this are based on basically guesswork. There really is no existing data to work from. Even the scenarios listed are kind of limited. Not everyone out in the boondocks are going to be owning 2 vehicles costing them $16 per day each before insurance, gas, etc. Some people will own used vehicles that they are only needing to pay for repairs.
Costs really depends on how much you use it every day. If you use it to go 3 miles to work and back each day, then a rental makes sense. But if you drive 30 miles each way, plus regular side trips (shopping, weekends going fishing) then it starts to be more economical to own.
Don't forget, just because someone else owns the car doesn't mean there's not a cost involved. In fact, renting a vehicle is going to cost you more per mile than owning. Why? Because the owner of the vehicle has to pay everything you would, plus he has to make a profit. Sure, he might be able to pay somewhat less than you on maintainance due to scale, but he's also probably not going to own the vehicle quite as long as an individual would. Car rental agencies generally don't keep a car 12 years long. People who own their own vehicles quite often do.
So I fully expect car ownership to drop very low in the cities. In the suburbs, I personally think that car ownership will drop to about one per home.
You won't see a lot of multi-car families in suburbs but there will still be some. After all, there are lots of individuals who drive a lot for their jobs. We have a guy in our office who has to go around to various sites all day. He also ends up keeping a lot of his tools in his car. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for him to rent a vehicle considering the miles he drives daily.
Ultimately I think the big driver to SDCs will be that lack of a need to get a car loan and pay interest on that loan.
Car loans aren't really that bad. A few hundred a month for a decent car isn't difficult for most people. Definitely tougher for first time buyers and lower income people, but dealers generally find a way to make it possible.
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