50/50 here.
1- market is psychological so if it goes to 5s again more will sell in fears of going ATH or even lower. 2- soft bank never sold their 100m ish shares, which if retail bought those were screwed as they will sell 3- si was higher so this time they can pound it lower if they choose. 4- mega caps still bloated and market is 170% to gdp, way bloated. Debt higher than 07. So many factors to why macro / market isn’t pricing in QT, even if inflation comes down or rates come down. World isn’t in a great place, several countries in recession and energy may spike back up.
Can be saved with things too, such as
I’ve learned to never compare, but analyze situations. It’s changed a lot since.. “history never repeats itself but it rhymes”.
Reading more and more, there’s so much misinformation around - like the fact that interest rates rising DONT make the debt cost more, only future. Food lags and will keep going up. Energy will go up for winter. Inflation was 0% change but if they measured the way they did the 1970s, it’s actually 20%+ which is extremely high.
Rates only started march. First q dgp was negative and second which rates take 4-6m to take effect, so expect a dark q4/q1 23’ if that’s the case when those hikes take effect. Then add QT…
I don’t think investors realize what’s coming.