It's what I consider a "minimal damage" bet. Any other track any other day I would drop a dollar on a win/place and be pleasantly surprised, but with two dollar minimums just a $2 win suffices.

For the realistic view, the way I see it, he's running his third race off a layoff. IMO the best angle to gauge how a horse is doing coming into form is watch whether or not he can pass other horses from 2nd call to the top of the stretch, especially important for a closer. He did that in his last race, but the caveat is that he did it without going anywhere. It's possible he just didn't like the turf, but he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire since his 2nd to Exagerrator on a water logged Preakness day.

The third thing I'm seeing is that this race is exactly the kind of race a deep closer that looks terrible on paper shows up. I have a pace picture of 69x4 which is insane on paper. I fully expect the front half of the field to tire each other out. 10 is the only other pace horse and he runs a little too close to the early speed for my liking. If he can stay 4-5 lengths back he may have a better shot today than CW.

But I fully expect one of those two to win and honestly, I'm probably projecting favoritism on CW over the #10 horse more likely to win.