You all might be tired of hearing this but i am 90% sure that EXO will renew their contract. If Suho still keep his promise from 2019 (that no matter what decisions they are making, they will stay together), then i'm pretty sure they will renew their contract JUST from the fact that Baekhyun and Kai are in SuperM. Of course i have a LOT more reasons why EXO gonna renew their contract but i'll just state the obvious reason first.
But let's say Suho changed his mind and they decided that those who stay in SM will stay and those who wanted to leave, then they will leave SM. Then i'm 100% sure that at least Baekhyun and Kai will be renewing their contract. The fact they are in SuperM are already an obvious decision that Baekhyun and Kai made when they join SuperM. They literally said if SuperM isn't a PERMANENT group then they will not join SuperM at all and SuperM is indeed a PERMANENT group. So it's obvious that Baekhyun and Kai are planning to stay in SM. Wouldn't it be stupid that they join SuperM just to leave SM after 4 years?? That would be an indecisive of Baekhyun and Kai to join SuperM. I'm sure when they decided to join SuperM, they were also thinking about their contracts. Not to mention, Baekhyun is the LEADER of SuperM and the fact they all LOVE to be part of SuperM. Ten even mentioned that he would fight for it to have SuperM comeback in the future.
Another reasons why i believe EXO will renew their contract is because:
A renewal contract isn't the SAME as the first contract they had, it would be different. EXO can negotiate with SM if SM really wants EXO to stay in SM. Both EXO and SM can put a condition in the contract. So anything can happen.
Although SM mistreated them a multiple times, they aren't stupid enough to let go of EXO, one of their biggest money maker.
EXO is not stupid either. They knew if they leave SM, there would be a BIG consequences (such as cannot claiming rights for their group name EXO, their hit songs and their concepts that y'all love so much). This is where negotiations happens.
SMCU. EXO is a major part of SMCU. Although it seems that right now, aespa and NCT looks like the main characters of SMCU. EXO is still a BIG PART of it. EXO is literally the first step of Lee Sooman to make SMCU projects. So this name 'EXO' is quite important to Lee Sooman. Who knows what SM are planning for EXO's future? Key from SHINee even said that he's excited and looking forward to what EXO gonna do after they all finished enlisting.
Baekhyun himself once said that although SM sometimes made decisions that upset a lot of fans, SM is not that bad of a company. I think he even mentioned that he will not ever forget his roots which is SM.
Since SHINee and some of SNSD members have shares with SM, i believe some (or all) of EXO members also have shares with SM. I mean EXO 'Growl' literally created a new SM building. It would be ridiculous if EXO have no shares with SM. At least, Suho must have one. But this is just my speculation. Don't take this one seriously tho.
Come on, let's be realistic. EXO wouldn't be the same EXO that we knew if they leave SM lol. I think even EXO themselves knows that. Their music qualities will change, the EXOplanet concept that EXO-Ls seems to love so much will be GONE because EXOplanet is a part of SMCU (see the dots here?). Basically their qualities will drop. Maybe not their music, but their music video, concepts and the concerts?? Damn, it's pain to admit but we all have to accept that all those amazing concerts that some of y'all have been gone to are hella amazing because of SM. You can't deny that.
There are actually more reasons but i forgot along the way when i wrote this but i hope y'all understood what i'm trying to explain here.
Nevertheless, i will respect any decision that EXO will make in the future. After all, their happiness is the most important for EXO-Ls. But i can't promise myself if i will stay interested or not in EXO if they leave SM.
This doesn't mean i will hate EXO if they leave SM. NO, TOTALLY NOT. I'm just being realistic here. I love EXO because their music fit my taste, their concepts are what keeps me interested for their future comebacks and i love their connection with other SM groups like SHINee, RV, NCT, SuperM and more. What if all of these are gone?? i don't see me in the future being interested in EXO anymore. Again, i'm just being realistic here and not biased at all.