Colts agree to terms with RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Here's why I'm hyped:

Just want to start off by saying this is all clearly speculation.

I don't believe that Bradshaw's TD production from last year was or is unsustainable like it may seem. He was on a high powered offense last year that was providing him with opportunties left and right. He's going back to virtually the same team only with a better starting RB.

Now, about those opportunities...

Receiving:

If the Colts use Bradshaw as a receiving threat in the redzone like they did last year, one could expect a slight bump in TDs because Gore should be getting them down field more effectively than T-Rich was able to. I understand that Gore possesses most of the qualities that Bradshaw does and that Gore is much better than T-Rich was but that doesn't matter. Bradshaw's value is not based exclusively on how many carries he will be stealing from Gore. It's about what he'll contribute in the capacity he is used. I would say that based on last year's success and just by virtue of signing Bradshaw the Colts intend to use him in the same or an extremely similar fashion to how he was used last season. If we look at production in a receiving capacity alone, Bradshaw was able to score TDs in 5 out of the 9 games he was healthy last year for 6 TDs total and 33.0 YPG. That's 7.67 points per game. None of these games were really outliers in terms of yardage or TDs and were against a very even mix of opponents in terms of defense (DEN, PHI, JAX, TEN, BAL, HOU, CIN, PIT, NYG).

Rushing (or what are, at the moment, Gore's carries):

Judging by last year's usage, Bradshaw should at the very least be used to spell Frank "the aging veteran and guy we want to keep healthy" Gore. If we're assuming Bradshaw stole half of his carries from T-Rich last year strictly due to T-Rich being a terrible RB and remove them from the equation (which I consider to be quite conservative) we are left with 23.4 YPG and 2 TDs (scored in separate games and against decent defenses in the Bengals and Steelers). That's 3.67 points per game.

The big "if:

The climate in Indy being one that sustains the above situation in terms of opportunities to acheive similar results to last year hinges upon one obvious factor: the team's success. I for one believe that the Colts have the potential to perform at a comparabe level to last year based strictly on the fact that the team has not really changed. Their upcoming schedule is looking pretty rough for about the next 5 games. After that, they face TB, PIT, JAX, HOU, MIA. That's a pretty juicy schedule. Even if the Colts struggle for the next few weeks, there is a big opportunity for them to steamroll their opponents for those last 5.

Conclusion:

Based on what I would call conservative logic and adjusting for Gore's vast superioty to T-Rich as a RB, we should be able to expect 11.34 points per game from Bradshaw. That's RB11 pace if we equate it to last year's standings I'm not saying he'll start producing like that immediately. The Colts need to start doing better and Bradshaw may take a couple games to get worked in. If and once these things happen though there is a lot of potential here.

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