That seems essentially right. I think the qualifying for the next World Cup has not been formally finalized, but I think everyone is anticipating essentially the same. Uefa uses their Nations League in Euro qualifying but not World Cup qualifying.

I think everyone agrees that the importance of the next World Cup dwarfs the Nations League or the Gold Cup or anything else. With the focus on the World Cup, I think the US’s FIFA rankings are important. Ideally, the US would be ranked in the top 7 so we would be seeded and avoid other top teams. I think it is vital that the US be ranked in the top 15 so it would not be in a group with two top 15 teams. I don’t want the US in a group with both Germany and Portugal, or Spain and Portugal, or Argentina and Croatia, or Belgium and England, etc. The USA is currently ranked in 22nd place.

Against lower ranked Concacaf teams, it is easy to lose points and hard to gain many points. In a 4-team group, home and away, for early WC qualifying, the USA could win 4 games, tie 1 game, and lose 1 game and lose FIFA rankings points.

With rankings in mind, the weights of the games are important. Nations League group and qualifying games have a 15 weight, Nations League semifinals and finals have a 25 weight, WC qualifying games have a 25 weight, Gold Cup group games have a 35 weight, Gold Cup knockout games have a 40 weight, and friendlies during international breaks have a 10 weight.