[Daily Discussion] Thursday, December 10, 2015

This isn't normal, but it started around August 2015 if you look at the charts. I am not entirely sure how this all fits together, but it seems like a wealth transfer that potentially has interesting side effects. I think someone is arbitraging CNY, USD and BTC. In a way, Bitcoin may be subsidizing the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan and Chinese economy, but somebody with more knowledge would have to research this claim as I honestly don't know and would not have the time to properly fully research that.

Bitcoin holders believe this is a bull market. And it may be. However, if you look at DXY (US Dollar), USDCNY (US Dollar / Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate) and Bitcoin there is a clear and noticeable pattern. Somebody is transferring a giant amount of wealth from China into the United States and is therefore subsidizing the very thing most Bitcoin holders fear or dislike, Federal Reserve Notes. Whoever is doing this could likely wipe the BTC order books in an instant once they withdrew the full amount to USD. Or this is a very coordinated arbitrage operation that is more sophisticated. Bitcoin holders seem to have become complacent in holding, unwilling to sell, because they believe Bitcoin may be headed to a new all time high of some obscene amount. Look into the relation between DXY, USDCNY and Bitcoin. There are some clear relationships. Bitcoin is rising without a significant correction. A little CNY in before back in August only attributed to a minor rise and a major crash. Now it's completely different. Price drifts up on little volume, and selling pressure has little effect. In theory, at some point this should crash once the market figures out how to close the loophole. Less it be some operation to systematically transfer wealth from China to the United States in a brilliantly played economically driven military exercise. If that's the case, I'm available for consulting Uncle Sam. If Bitcoin is effectively subsidizing the US Dollar, that would be absolutely hilarious when thinking about Bitcoin's mantra of getting away from the state and the powers that be. In any case, I've not seriously researched this issue, but only casually noticed it. Someone with more time and resources would need to look into and verify the relationships.

Honestly I don't see how this can last, because as soon as whoever is moving funds finishes... It's over. The first whale to short this would most likely blow the arbitragers out of the water and reap tens of thousands of coins or fiat. Or some major Forex players in the DXY, CNY or USDCNY markets will find out and close the loop to make it impossible. At that point we would be left with the possibility that this is driven by Chinese demand to get money out of China, and therefore subsidizing the US Economy / world's reserve currency with China's growth, etc. Sounds like an economic and military disaster in the making. If any of that is true, then I would expect China to ban Bitcoin again to close the loops in their capital controls. Or there is some bigger thing going on here. In any case, the Western Bitcoin markets have all become complacent and are entirely at the whim of the players / arbitragers over in China and are unwilling to react properly or normally. I have no guess as to how long this lasts. But price is driven by China alone obviously and is therefore an incredibly risky investment considering the implications of what the US, China or other countries might do in response.

Seems like a mess any way you look at it. Someone else can verify and research these relationships. But I think once the market figures out what is going on, it will compensate for it and it is a coin toss whether it's good or bad for Bitcoin holders. Guess we'll see.

/r/BitcoinMarkets Thread