[FWI] What will happen to all the people when a huge percentage of jobs are replaced by automation in the next 50 years?

  • Won't happen for a very long time, people (read, unexperienced youth on reddit) vastly underestimate the extent of automation that exists already in large offices.

Barring superintelligent AI that can identify new, infinite, unique scenarios and pass intelligent judgment consistently, I think most 'thinking' jobs that can be automated economically have been already.

I think people see the rapid growth of software and automated systems, and then apply that trend absolutely and think-wow! I bet all those drones in a corporate office could be automated in the same way! They're just doing the same thing everyday punching in numbers to spreadsheets! I'm sure there are people like that but they've been near extinction for the last decade and won't represent a meaningless loss.

Realistically, the 'coding' infrastructure exists to set up any logical thought sequence, but until machine learning evolves into an infinitely more flexible and adaptable form, the human office job will be much more cost effective than mapping out hundreds/thousands/millions of unique scenarios for a very long time.

As for automating blue collar jobs, again, we've been doing this since they build wooden restraints to make oxen pull farm equipment. Yes, more robots will be built, yes, the day to day operating electricity/maintenance costs of machines beat out factory workers. Thing is, construction jobs, trades, specialty shops, auto techs etc. Fall under the same phenomenon as office jobs. Technically, right now you could build a robot that could walk into my house and fix a hole in my sink. Thing is, programming/building it to function effectively in every potential plumbing related scenario (or even just one application) is prohibitively materials and labour intensive- that won't change for a very very long time.

I think people underestimate how cheap it is to support a human life with an apartment, electricity and some food (at least two of which will get much cheaper as time continues). The Incremental automation that already exists improves efficiency, making the cost of supporting a human relatively lower, so as we get more and more advanced it will become feasible to pay humans who do more and more specialised tasks.

The above was a loose stream of thoughts, obviously not all encompassing but I think it's important that someone from outside the /r/future futurology naivety echo chamber chimes in now and again. With all of that said I think long-term we'll probably end up with communism, but we're nowheres near the need for even basic income.

/r/FutureWhatIf Thread