Dunno if this is too much 'modern politics' and stuff but whatever.

So ITTL, the initial predictions about Russia crushing Ukraine in a matter of a month from February-March 2022 proves correct. Perhaps the Russian army is actually effective as Putin advertises it to be or there is a successful decapitation strike on Kyiv. Whatever the divergence may be, the Russians were able to send tanks into Kyiv and capture Ukraine's major cities. After the fall of Kyiv, Ukraine would effectively surrender, though a protracted guerilla war would be carried out in the more Ukrainian-majority regions near the EU border.

Russia would attempt to 'Belarusify' Ukraine, installing a Russophilic goon to power, perhaps being Medvedchuk. Russia and their collaborators would roll back the post-2014 Euromaidan reforms. Ukraine would also be forced to "join" the Russian-dominated Eurasian Union. Ukraine would also be forced to accept a pernmant presence of Russian bases and soldiers like Belarus. Much like in Crimea, sham referendums would be carried out in the DPR and LPR, in which they would vote to be annexed to Russia as oblasts.

Of course, this world is far worse for Ukraine. Additionally, for Russia, though they don't have to deal with OTL's attrition war in Eastern Ukraine, they have to deal with just as much worse insurgency in Central-Eastern Ukraine. Plus, with Ukraine effectively subjugated, Russia might turn its attention to new conquests in the Caucasus and the militarization of Eastern Europe once a cold war-like situation begins to appear again.