Macedonia conflict threatens to destabilise whole of Balkans

Lavror is at least partially right :

  • It does look like somebody is trying to replicate Euromaidan's success after watching it push Yanukovich out in Ukraine

  • There are a lot of similarities (grassroot movements in a very poor and tired country) to push out an extremely corrupt government

  • The opposition use wiretapped records to denunce public embezzlement of very large scale to make people angry, banking the population will push out the gov and elect them instead

  • Except that the opposition is probably just as corrupt and hiding just as much, and won't release tapes upon themselves

  • They hinted to be provided so by foreign powers that might or might not be the USA

  • That could be motivated to block out the russians and their pipeline, despite the EU need for it, possibly under the nose of the EU ("just take one for the team")

  • Some people participating in it might be motivated by the will of removing an extrelemy corrupt leadership, but judging by the results of the late arab spring, this might or might not be a good idea (granted, the destruction of the ukrainian lifestyle is a 100% voluntary sabotage by russia, as revenge against the population removing their puppet) they might underestimate the risk and cause more trouble than they'd think they'd fix otherwise.

  • But otoh the russians don't give a crap about the population either and just hope their friend tyran will stay in power. They will of course use the above argument about the failed arab spring to self justify it to themselves and/or the public opinion.

  • I think somebody will have to send the protesters home for the time being, till next election ; even if lots of people won't argue it's not possible anymore (fuck them).

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